Biden’s Reelection Prospects Dim as Prediction Market Points to Harris Dominance

United States President Joe Biden’s prospects for a second presidential term are dwindling, as indicated by bettors on the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket. The market, holding over $135 million in cryptocurrencies, reveals that 60% of traders believe U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris will secure the Democratic presidential nomination by August 21. In stark contrast, only 28% of users are backing Biden for the nomination, with about 10% favoring other potential candidates like Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

The shift in confidence in Biden’s candidacy comes following a report from The Washington Post citing doubts expressed by former President Barack Obama regarding the viability of Biden’s re-election. Biden’s recent COVID-19 diagnosis and concerns about his mental acuity have further fueled uncertainty among the public. These developments have led to a significant drop in bettors’ confidence in Biden’s ability to secure the nomination, marking a dramatic turnaround from their previous predictions.

While prediction markets have been noted for their ability to accurately gauge voter sentiments, experts remain divided on their consistency in predicting future events. In contrast to traditional polling methods, prediction markets like Polymarket have shown to provide unique insights into potential outcomes, though their reliability remains a topic of discussion within the political landscape.