Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Dip to $75K as Volatility Rises

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Arthur Hayes warns that Bitcoin could retest $78,000, with a potential drop to $75,000 if support fails, as open interest in BTC options intensifies volatility.

Canada has entered a new political and economic chapter with the election of Mark Carney as its new Prime Minister, replacing Justin Trudeau after more than seven years in office. Carney, a former central banker with a strong background in global finance, has already signaled his intent to push back against US tariffs and take a firm stance on economic policy. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has faced renewed selling pressure, briefly dipping below $81,000 as market volatility continues. With Carney’s history of skepticism toward cryptocurrencies and the broader financial landscape in flux, both political and economic developments are expected to shape investor sentiment in the weeks ahead.

Bitcoin Takes a Hit: BTC Dips Amid Market Jitters and Inflation Concerns

Bitcoin’s price has taken a sharp downturn, dropping to just above $80,000 on March 10, continuing a volatile streak that has left traders on edge. The decline, which BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has described as an ”ugly start” to the week, comes amid increased market speculation, options interest pressure, and global economic concerns.

After weeks of bouncing between $80,000 and $95,000, Bitcoin has once again plunged below critical support, slipping to $80,124 before staging a minor recovery to trade at around $81,395. The latest dip, which saw the asset lose more than 5% in just 24 hours, has sparked discussions of further declines, with analysts warning of potential retests of lower support zones.

Hayes took to X to share his perspective, predicting that Bitcoin could revisit the $78,000 level. Should this key support fail, he anticipates a slide toward $75,000.

“There are a lot of Bitcoin options open interest stuck in the $70,000 to $75,000 range,” Hayes noted, adding that entering this zone could trigger significant volatility.

Data from Deribit reveals a substantial amount of open interest (OI) in BTC options contracts at key price levels, shedding light on the ongoing battle between bulls and bears. At the $70,000 strike price, approximately $696 million in OI remains open, while $659 million is positioned at $75,000, and another $680 million sits at $80,000.

With a significant portion of the market currently shorting Bitcoin, the potential for cascading liquidations remains high. A break below $75,000 could lead to a rapid descent, testing the resolve of recent market entrants and long-term investors alike.

According to market research firm 10x Research, Bitcoin’s current downturn follows a ”textbook correction” pattern. In a March 10 note, the firm observed that nearly 70% of the selling pressure came from investors who had bought BTC within the last three months.

This pattern mirrors historical Bitcoin corrections, where newer investors, shaken by sudden drawdowns, exit their positions en masse, exacerbating market downturns.

Bitcoin’s latest dip has also sent shockwaves through market sentiment indicators. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index, which gauges investor sentiment on a scale from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), has plunged back into ”extreme fear” territory, registering a reading of 20 on March 10.

This marks a significant reversal from the previous bullish sentiment that dominated much of early 2025, when Bitcoin surged past $90,000, driven by strong ETF inflows and institutional adoption. However, with BTC now struggling to maintain support above $80,000, fear has quickly taken hold.

The coming week could be a pivotal one for Bitcoin, as two key inflation reports are set to be released in the United States. The data could heavily influence Federal Reserve monetary policy, with traders closely watching for any signs that inflation is accelerating.

If inflation data comes in hotter than expected, it could prompt the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance, keeping interest rates elevated for longer. Such a move would likely strengthen the US dollar and put additional pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s Next Move: Will BTC Hold Above $78,000?

With Bitcoin on the cusp of testing critical support at $78,000, traders are bracing for increased volatility. If the level holds, a bounce back toward $85,000 and beyond remains possible. However, a break lower could see Bitcoin testing $75,000, with the $70,000 range coming into play if selling pressure intensifies.

Arthur Hayes’ earlier predictions have pointed to a potential drop to $75,000 before BTC embarks on a parabolic move toward $250,000. Whether that scenario plays out remains to be seen, but in the short term, traders are eyeing this week’s economic reports as a key catalyst for Bitcoin’s next move.

For now, Bitcoin’s fate hinges on whether buyers step in to defend support or if panic selling from retail traders continues to drive the price lower.

Mark Carney Becomes Canada’s New Prime Minister, Sets Stage for Trade Clash with US

In other news, Canada has ushered in a new political era with the election of Mark Carney as its new Prime Minister following a decisive March 9 vote. Carney, a former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor, replaces Justin Trudeau, who stepped down after over seven years in office. His leadership is already setting the stage for a heated trade battle with the United States, as he vows to retaliate against tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.

Carney’s ascent to Canada’s top political office marks a shift from his long-standing role in global finance to direct political leadership. With a track record of steering central banking policies during financial crises, his economic expertise is expected to shape Canada’s fiscal and trade policies in a unique way.

Before entering politics, Carney held key positions in some of the world’s most influential financial institutions. He served as Governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013, helping the country navigate the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Following that, he led the Bank of England for another seven years, overseeing the UK’s monetary policies, including during Brexit-related economic turbulence.

In the weeks leading up to his election, Carney confirmed he had started the process of renouncing his UK and Irish citizenships, signaling his full commitment to his new role in Canada.

Carney’s rise to power is also being closely watched by the cryptocurrency industry, as he has been one of Bitcoin’s most outspoken critics for over half a decade.

His opposition to Bitcoin dates back to March 2, 2018, when he publicly denounced the cryptocurrency’s fixed supply cap, calling it an economic relic.

Carney has repeatedly criticized Bitcoin for fueling speculative mania, arguing that its price volatility makes it a poor store of value. In one notable example, he pointed out the erratic nature of Bitcoin’s price movements, saying, “If you had taken out a 1,000-pound student loan in Bitcoin last December to pay your sterling living costs for next year, you’d be short about 500 pounds right now. If you’d done the same last September, you’d be ahead by 2,000 pounds. That’s quite a lottery.”

Instead of decentralized cryptocurrencies, Carney has advocated for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), claiming that a government-backed digital currency could help expand banking access and assist in combating terrorism financing and economic crime.

Despite his skepticism toward Bitcoin, Carney’s tenure as a board member at Stripe from 2021 to 2025 coincided with the payment processor’s rollout of crypto payment solutions between 2022 and 2024. Whether his administration will take a hard stance against crypto or explore digital asset regulations remains to be seen.

Carney’s approach to Bitcoin appears to be even stricter than that of his predecessor, Justin Trudeau.

Trudeau had previously dismissed opposition leader Pierre Poilievre’s pro-crypto stance as “reckless”, warning that investing in cryptocurrencies was not a responsible way to counter inflation.

While Trudeau had largely taken a neutral-to-skeptical approach toward digital assets, Carney’s long history of criticism suggests that Canada’s cryptocurrency sector could face tighter regulatory scrutiny under his leadership.

Carney vs. Trump: The Battle Over Tariffs

Beyond crypto, one of Carney’s first major challenges as Prime Minister will be his response to tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.

During his March 9 victory speech, Carney lashed out at Trump, accusing him of ”attacking Canadian families” and deliberately undermining Canada’s economy.

In retaliation, the Canadian government has introduced its own tariffs, a move that Carney says will remain in place until Washington reverses its policies.

Carney’s strong stance suggests that Canada-US trade relations could become increasingly tense, with businesses and financial markets bracing for potential economic fallout.

Carney’s tenure as Prime Minister will likely focus on three key areas:

  • Trade and Economic Policy – Carney’s experience as a central banker will play a major role in shaping Canada’s monetary and fiscal strategy, particularly in response to US tariffs and inflation concerns.

  • Cryptocurrency Regulation – Given his past criticisms of Bitcoin, Canada’s crypto landscape could face new regulatory pressures, possibly with a push toward CBDC adoption.

  • Foreign Relations – With Canada retaliating against US trade tariffs, Carney’s leadership could mark a shift toward a more aggressive foreign policy stance against Trump’s administration.

With global investors, trade partners, and the crypto industry watching closely, Carney’s transition from central banker to political leader will shape Canada’s economic and technological landscape for years to come.

This article was originally Posted on Coinpaper.com