Derive reported that the probability of BTC reaching $125K by June increased to 44.4%. On the other hand, Arthur Hayes warned of a potential pullback to $70K-$75K, but long-term projections are still mostly bullish. VanEck even predicted that BTC could reach $180K in 2025. Meanwhile, Michigan recently proposed a Bitcoin reserve bill, which made it the 20th US state to consider holding crypto assets. Additionally, GameStop’s stock surged 18% after speculation about potential Bitcoin investments.
Analysts See Increased Chance of a BTC Surge to $125K
Bitcoin has stayed below the psychological $100,000 level for the past seven days, but optimism about its potential upside is still strong. A new report from on-chain options protocol Derive suggests that there is now a 44.4% chance that Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by late June, up from 41.9%. The probability of a big downside move also decreased, with the likelihood of Bitcoin dropping to $75,000 before June falling to just 12.1% from 17.8%.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, however, is a bit more cautious, and warned that Bitcoin could retreat toward the $70,000 to $75,000 range. He believes such a move could trigger a “mini financial crisis” and potential volatility in the coming months. The last time Bitcoin traded near $75,000 was on Nov. 8, just days after Donald Trump’s election victory. This set the stage for a rally that pushed Bitcoin to $100,000 for the first time ever on Dec. 5.
BTC’s price action over the past week (Source: CoinMarketCap)
Bitcoin is currently trading hands at $96,790, according to CoinMarketCap, and remained below the six-figure mark since Feb. 7. While it briefly hit a new all-time high of $109,000 on Jan. 20 before Trump’s inauguration, the price struggled to keep up its momentum.
Crypto trader Jelle pointed out that Bitcoin’s failure to reclaim $100,000 resulted in “choppy conditions,” making it difficult for traders to gauge the market’s next major move. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently shows a reading of 50, which indicates neutral sentiment among investors.
Despite short-term uncertainty, long-term projections are also still bullish. Asset manager VanEck predicted in December that the bull market will reach a “medium-term peak” in the first quarter of 2025 before pushing to all-time highs later in the year. At the peak of this cycle, VanEck expects Bitcoin to trade around $180,000, with Ethereum surpassing $6,000. This outlook suggests that while Bitcoin’s current price action may be frustrating for traders, the broader trajectory is in favor of growth.
Michigan Latest to Propose Bitcoin Reserve Bill
Despite the uncertainty about BTC’s next move, Michigan recently became the latest US state to propose a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill. This made it the 20th state to introduce legislation focused on crypto reserves.
Representatives Bryan Posthumus and Ron Robinson introduced HB 4087 on Feb. 13, looking to amend the state’s Management and Budget Act to allow for the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve. The bill will give the state treasurer the authority to invest up to 10% of funds from both the general fund and economic stabilization fund into cryptocurrency. While it does not specify which digital assets can be bought, it includes a provision allowing the state to lend cryptocurrency as long as it does not pose additional financial risks.
Posthumus is optimistic about Michigan’s leadership potential in crypto policy, and referred to Texas as an example, where Senator Charles Schwertner introduced a similar bill just one day earlier. The bill mandates that Michigan must hold crypto assets directly through secure custody solutions or exchange-traded products from registered investment companies. The state’s pension fund already has exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds.
In addition to the reserve proposal, Posthumus suggested the idea of “MichCoin,” which is a stablecoin backed by Michigan’s gold and silver reserves. He believes such a digital currency could provide real value and strengthen the state’s financial position.
This latest Bitcoin reserve move happened as 20 states advanced crypto reserve bills past the House committee stage. Texas was the latest to amend its legislation this week to permit crypto investments and trading. Meanwhile, North Dakota is the only state to have rejected similar proposals.
States considering crypto (Source: Bitcoin Reserve Monitor)
A state Bitcoin reserve is a government-managed fund that holds Bitcoin as part of its financial strategy, similar to traditional reserves that include assets like gold, bonds, or fiat currency. The goal of a reserve like this is to diversify the state’s holdings, hedge against inflation, and potentially benefit from Bitcoin’s long-term value appreciation.
The structure of a state Bitcoin reserve can vary depending on legislation. Some states propose direct investments in Bitcoin through secure custody solutions, while others consider exchange-traded products that track Bitcoin’s price. Additionally, some bills include provisions that allow the state to lend its Bitcoin holdings to generate more revenue if done without increasing financial risk.
GameStop Stock Spikes on Bitcoin Speculation
GameStop shares surged 18% in after-hours trading after speculation that the company is exploring investments in alternative assets, including Bitcoin. A report from CNBC that referred to three sources familiar with the matter suggested that GameStop is considering crypto investments, though it is still uncertain if the company will actually move forward with the plan. One source indicated that the company is still evaluating whether an investment like this aligns with its business strategy.
(Source: Google Finance)
The stock experienced a sharp spike to $31.30 before settling at $28.36, marking a 7% gain after-hours. The surge also impacted a Solana-based meme coin called GameStop (GME), which briefly jumped 45% to $0.0027 before retreating again. Despite the speculation, two sources told CNBC that Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, is not involved in any crypto-related plans for GameStop, even though CEO Ryan Cohen previously posted a photo with him on X.
The increased interest in Bitcoin investments is taking place as more companies follow Strategy’s lead by adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. Japanese mobile gaming firm Gumi also recently bought about $6.6 million worth of Bitcoin, while Metaplanet raised $26.1 million to expand its own Bitcoin holdings to 1,762 BTC, which is worth approximately $170 million.
GameStop previously explored the crypto space by launching a crypto wallet and an NFT marketplace, both of which were later shut down due to regulatory uncertainty. The company became an iconic example of meme stock success in 2021, when a short squeeze led to its stock price soaring over 1,000% in a month as retail traders took on hedge funds that had heavily shorted the stock.
This article was originally Posted on Coinpaper.com
